Analysts say Indonesian rhetoric at Malaysia and Singapore reflects domestic frustration
Analysts quoted by CNA say sharp words amid the haze are political posturing for a domestic audience, and caution against reading too much into them.
Sharp words from Indonesian political figures aimed at Malaysia and Singapore reflect domestic frustration and political posturing, according to analysts quoted by CNA. The analysts urged that the criticism not be given undue weight.
In the analysts' view, the latest comments, which came while the transboundary haze persists, seem to stem from "domestic political frustrations" and do not mark any change in how Indonesia deals with its neighbours. Some political figures, a member of President Prabowo Subianto's Cabinet among them, have made pointed comments, yet the analysts noted that Singapore and Malaysia have refrained from aiming criticism at the Indonesian leader himself.
Remarks on gas and on Singapore's state investors
On Thursday (Oct 22), Bahlil Lahadalia, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition, floated the idea that gas export contracts with neighbouring countries might not be renewed, although he named none of them. "Regarding our energy security, I will review contracts with other countries that are uncooperative and do not show mutual respect in their relations with us," were his words at an event, according to CNBC Indonesia.
Muhammad Lutfi, a former trade minister, separately alleged that Temasek and GIC, the state investors of Singapore, tried to pressure the global index provider MSCI into downgrading Indonesia's stock market. The allegations have been denied by both Temasek and GIC. Mr Lutfi has posted a series of videos on social media over recent days aimed at Singapore and Malaysia, and these claims belong to that set. Other videos saw him speak to Grace Fu, Singapore's Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, asking if she would take enforcement action against firms listed in Singapore.
Singapore was "not the only focus of ire among Indonesia's politicians", said Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian from the National University of Singapore. As an example, he cited the criticism Mr Lutfi directed at Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman, the Member of Parliament for Muar in Malaysia. Mr Syed Saddiq had urged his government, on Oct 13, to get ASEAN countries to apply diplomatic pressure over the haze and to regard Indonesia as an "outcast". On Oct 20, Mr Lutfi posted an Instagram video saying that Mr Syed Saddiq ignored the part played by Malaysian firms active in the plantation sector in Indonesia.
Analysts point to a domestic audience
Mr Made Supriatma, a visiting fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said Indonesians "are in need of answers to the hardships they face". He said casting neighbours as partly responsible "serves as an easy way for politicians to evade their own accountability". Aiming criticism at neighbours might also be viewed, he added, as a means of winning over audiences at home while drawing eyes away from the economic difficulties the country faces.
"Especially in Indonesia where resource nationalism is a popular cause", the rhetoric is best read as aimed at a domestic audience, said Mr Muhammad Garda Ramadhito, an associate research fellow with the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Ms Julia Lau of ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute called such posturing a "long-standing tactic" among Indonesian politicians who invoke nationalist sentiment during domestic difficulties.
The analysts further said that Prabowo's administration holds a broader position that Mr Lutfi's and Mr Bahlil's comments do not mirror, and they characterised its conduct as "more conciliatory". In early October, Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim spoke with Mr Prabowo by phone, and Mr Ramadhito cited that call, in which the Indonesian president consented to act on the worsening haze.
Gas exports and economic trade-offs
According to Mr Ramadhito, Singapore draws its natural gas from a wide range of sources, and cutting exports also carries economic risks for Indonesia. He said rerouting exports domestically can widen the budget deficit, as gas sold at lower domestic prices reduces revenue for Pertamina.
Mr Made raised doubts over whether the downstreaming programme in Indonesia could create enough demand for the gas, given a sluggish global economy and strain on the domestic economy. He further said that in some areas, fuel imports in particular, Indonesia still relies on Singapore.
Calls for calm
Dino Patti Djalal, who once served as Indonesia's deputy foreign minister, characterised Singapore as a country with "goodwill, trust and a proven track record of cooperation with Indonesia". He did not name Mr Lufti, but said it "doesn't make sense" to claim that Singapore was plotting against the equity market of Indonesia.
Over public rebuke, the leaders of Singapore and Malaysia have so far indicated they favour quiet diplomacy and direct, legal pressure on companies, Mr Ramadhito noted. K Shanmugam, Singapore's Coordinating Minister for National Security, expressed thanks to the Prabowo administration for what he called its "unprecedented" efforts in tackling the haze issue. "Confrontational rhetoric is entirely unproductive," Mr Made said. "It is bad for all parties involved."
