Iran has detailed plans to target Gulf undersea cables if attacked again, officials say

According to a pair of high-ranking Iranian security officials who spoke to Reuters, detailed plans are ready in Tehran for striking subsea communication lines in the Gulf, should Washington and Israel launch a fresh attack on the country.

Neither official, both speaking anonymously, offered much detail, and they did not specify the method or the location of any such strikes by Tehran. One of them said Iran would try to stop repair work after any strikes, so that communications, including internet connections, stay disrupted for longer.

"If Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines ... from undersea cables to military bases, including covert ones," was how one of the officials put it. Iran, the official asserted, had complete access to the undersea cables and could destroy them with ease, while Washington was cautioned not to "play with fire".

Warnings from Iranian officials

On Wednesday (Oct 21), Yadollah Javani, who is the IRGC's deputy chief for political affairs, stated that seven major internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz could become Iranian targets should the country's own infrastructure be attacked. In a warning issued earlier this month, senior security figure Mohsen Rezaei said that in a renewed conflict, data centres, AI facilities and other digital infrastructure tied to the US across the Gulf might be targeted.

According to the second security official, the Gulf allies of Washington have put substantial investment into such infrastructure, and they "should hold Washington, not Tehran, responsible for any damage to undersea cables."

In March, two Amazon Web Services facilities in the UAE were struck directly by Iranian attacks, which also harmed infrastructure close to another of its sites in Bahrain. The IRGC designated American technology firms, among them Microsoft, Google, Apple and Nvidia, as legitimate targets when the March war was at its peak.

What analysts say about the impact

A UN agency, the International Telecommunication Union, puts the share of global internet traffic carried by subsea cables at around 99 per cent. Less than 1 per cent of international bandwidth runs through the Strait of Hormuz, so attacks there might have only a limited worldwide effect, according to Alan Mauldin, who is research director at the telecommunications research company TeleGeography.

Analysts said that internet services could slow and financial transactions, e-commerce and cloud computing could be disrupted if several cables were cut. According to Mauldin, how far operators rerouted traffic and how much spare capacity other connections had would determine the impact. Experts said restoring connections in wartime could be difficult, and higher insurance costs and delays in getting permits to enter territorial waters could complicate repairs further.

Though Tehran has made no public statement signalling any plan to target cables there, the Red Sea could prove a more significant target, especially with backing from Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen. Mauldin said the Red Sea accounts for roughly 3 per cent of global international demand in routed capacity, and about 10 per cent of the traffic moving between regions.

According to Alex Vatanka, who directs the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, the aim of such threats was to discourage a new conflict and to squeeze Washington by making US companies and Gulf governments worry about their investments.

Internet traffic can be sent along alternative routes over land-based connections, and Gulf states as well as US technology firms are putting money into more infrastructure to build resilience. By 2030, Microsoft intends to put more than US$400 million into subsea and terrestrial connectivity throughout the Middle East.

Gulf states offered no immediate comment, while the US Department of State and Iran's Foreign Ministry did not answer Reuters' queries seeking their views.